Everyone agrees that artificial intelligence (AI) is the key to enabling development of autonomous self-driving cars that meet the requirements of Level 5 (no driver) set by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). But few if any can give an accurate or realistic idea on how much it will cost car makers to do so.
Some argue that it takes only $20,000 to $25,000, and that improvements in AI are “just around the corner.” Others say it’s more than $250,000. Obviously, it’s very doubtful that a consumer would be willing to pay for such a huge car price hike to already high new car prices. Realistically, it may take at least two to three more decades for an affordable self-driving car to appear for the mass market.
AI is making performance progress, but “it is not there yet and it will be solved. Autonomous features will depend on consumer demand, legislation and lawsuits,” says Donald Walker, CEO of Magna, the largest global automotive electronics and contract assembly firm. “AI still may not be able to tell between a ball on the road and he child who kicked it,” he adds.
Given the recent accidents with fully autonomous cars, which were driven under well-controlled conditions, it’s easy to see that such cars don’t yet have the “brain” power to be considered safe and reliable, and be able to reasonably emulate human driver thinking. The accidents include an Uber Technologies crash in Arizona and one involving a Tesla Motors vehicle in California.
Critical to it all is the sensing method and the computer brain chip employed. There are basically three main modes of sensing, vision cameras, radar, and light detection and ranging (LiDAR). Each has its pros and cons, and all three are expected to be used in autonomous cars. They’re used to pinpoint a car’s location, to understand its surroundings, and to predict what objects or events around it will do.
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